The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics updated its House race ratings Wednesday, shifting 17 congressional contests across the country following redistricting changes, recent primary results, and mounting scandals involving several incumbents.
Most of the adjustments came in Florida after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a new congressional map into law earlier this week. The revised map is expected to strengthen Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and could further complicate Democrats’ efforts to regain control of the House.
According to the Center for Politics, the overall impact of the Florida changes favors Republicans.
Several Democratic-held seats in the Sunshine State became significantly more competitive under the new map. Rep. Kathy Castor’s 14th Congressional District shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” while Rep. Darren Soto’s 9th District moved from “Likely Democratic” to “Likely Republican.”
Florida’s newly drawn 22nd Congressional District also shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” and the state’s 25th District moved from “Safe Democratic” to “Toss-up.”
Republican-held districts saw adjustments as well. Seats currently represented by GOP Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar, and retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan were all downgraded from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” suggesting the races may still be competitive despite the GOP advantage.
The Florida changes follow similar rating adjustments in Virginia. Last week, the Center for Politics shifted four Virginia House districts toward Democrats after the state finalized its own redistricting plan. Districts previously considered toss-ups or leaning Republican were moved into the “Leans Democratic” or “Likely Democratic” categories.
Tuesday night’s elections in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana also influenced the latest round of rating updates, with several shifts benefiting Democrats.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, represented by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” The race is being closely watched after the district was redrawn in late 2025 to favor Republicans. Kaptur narrowly defeated Republican challenger Derek Merrin in 2024, and the two are expected to face off again this November.
Another Ohio race saw Republican Rep. Max Miller’s 7th District downgraded from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The Center for Politics cited ongoing public attention surrounding Miller’s contentious divorce and child custody battle with his ex-wife, who is the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno.
In North Carolina, reports of a House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Chuck Edwards also affected race ratings. Edwards, who has faced allegations of sexual misconduct, saw his 11th Congressional District shift from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
Texas Republicans also saw a slight downgrade in a traditionally conservative district. The vacant 23rd Congressional District, previously represented by scandal-plagued former Rep. Tony Gonzales, moved from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Elsewhere around the country, several races shifted in smaller but notable ways. Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan’s 1st District in Indiana improved from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” In Michigan, Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga’s 4th District moved from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” while Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s 8th District shifted from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Minnesota Republican Rep. Brad Finstad’s 1st District also moved slightly toward competitiveness, changing from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Following the latest adjustments, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said Democrats currently hold advantages in 213 House districts rated “Safe,” “Likely” or “Leans Democratic,” while Republicans hold similar advantages in 207 districts. Fifteen races are currently considered toss-ups heading into the midterm election cycle.
