Well, it looks like Vice President Kamala Harris is getting more than her fair share of October surprises—and they’re not exactly the kind you’d want right before Election Day.
First, it was the one-two punch of two hurricanes, and now, just to keep things interesting, here comes another round of bad economic news. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation numbers are coming in “hotter than anticipated,” as Bloomberg’s Michael McKee so eloquently put it. The consumer price index (CPI) has stubbornly stayed the same as last month, rising more than the expected 0.1%. And core inflation—excluding those pesky food and energy prices—ticked up by 0.3%, again beating forecasts. In other words, prices are still climbing, no matter what the White House says.
Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s attempts to sell a “rosy” jobs report last week, Thursday’s numbers tell a different tale. Turns out, the job market isn’t quite as strong as they’ve been letting on. There’s been a “big jump” in jobless claims, rising to 258,000 from last month’s 224,000—far higher than the predicted 230,000. Seems like the administration’s “good news” spin on the economy is starting to unravel. With inflation still high and employers holding back on hiring, it’s starting to look like the Democrats’ economic plan is running on fumes.
BREAKING: BOTH May and April jobs report numbers were just revised lower by a combined 111,000 jobs.
The May jobs report was revised from 272,000 to 218,000 while the April jobs report was revised from 165,000 to 108,000.
This means that 10 out of the last 15 monthly jobs… pic.twitter.com/JdrvMolGg3
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 5, 2024
And of course, this economic turmoil is the last thing Harris needs just weeks before Election Day. She’s been making the rounds in media interviews, trying to come across as a cool and collected leader who promises to control inflation. The talk about “price controls” sounds suspiciously like a chapter out of a Soviet-era economics textbook, but hey, anything to distract from the real numbers, right? Meanwhile, mainstream media has been quick to peddle studies suggesting that if Trump were back in charge, inflation would somehow be even worse—studies, mind you, that the Trump campaign has dismissed as biased and agenda-driven.
Speaking of “magical math,” let’s not forget those ever-so-convenient jobs reports that keep needing adjustments. April and May’s numbers, for example, were both revised downward by a hefty 111,000 jobs. That’s 10 out of the last 15 jobs reports that turned out to be overly optimistic. Funny how those “surprise” revisions always seem to pop up once the headlines have cooled. Economists at The Kobeissi Letter also pointed out that the labor force participation rate has increased, suggesting more people are job-hunting just as companies are scaling back on hiring. It’s a mismatch that spells trouble for anyone trying to claim they’re presiding over a thriving economy.
Then there’s the Federal Reserve’s move in September to cut interest rates by 0.5 points, landing the average rate between 4.75 and 5% nationwide. Democrats had been pushing for a more aggressive cut, hoping a 0.75-point drop might help prop up their narrative that the Biden-Harris administration is turning the economy around. But with the Fed resisting outside political pressure, Harris has been left to defend her boss’s handling of inflation with little room to maneuver.
In a recent appearance on “The View,” Harris had a hard time explaining what, if anything, she’d do differently. When asked about potential changes she’d make to address inflation, she could barely muster an answer. “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of – and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact, the work that we have done,” she stammered, as reported by CNN. Not exactly the kind of confidence you want to hear from the person second in line for the presidency. Unsurprisingly, this non-answer provided Republicans with yet another opportunity to tie her to the increasingly unpopular President Biden.
As Harris and the Biden administration try to put a positive spin on what’s shaping up to be a bleak economic picture, it’s clear that voters might be seeing through the smoke and mirrors. Between hurricanes, stubborn inflation, and a shaky job market, this October might just be the tipping point for many Americans looking for a change.