Forget the Big Mac Index. It seems like the real indicator of the economy is the Starbucks Index. Yes, you read that right—the price of your daily caffeine fix can now tell us just how bad the economy truly is.
The beloved coffee giant Starbucks just reported its second-quarter earnings, and boy, were they bad. With lower-than-expected revenue, earnings, and same-store sales growth, it’s safe to say that Starbucks’ cup is not quite as full as we all thought. In fact, its shares opened a whopping 14% lower on Wednesday after reporting these disappointing results.
CEO Laxman Narasimhan had a bleak outlook for the future, calling it “a highly challenged environment.” Well, no kidding. With people pinching their pennies and looking to save money wherever they can, it’s no wonder that Starbucks saw a decline in its revenue and earnings. Who wants to spend $6 on a latte when they can make a pot of coffee at home for a fraction of the price?
During the earnings call, Narasimhan admitted that the “macro headwinds” were a major factor in Starbucks’ poor performance. In other words, people just don’t have the money to splurge on expensive coffee anymore.
But wait, it gets worse. Starbucks saw a decline in foot traffic and transactions – a clear sign that the “occasional customers” are not feeling so occasional anymore. And let’s not forget the decline in active members on their loyalty program. Looks like those free rewards just aren’t enticing enough to keep customers coming back.
And what about their attempt at bringing in customers with “menu innovations” like lavender lattes? Well, we hate to break it to you, Starbucks, but those didn’t really do the trick.
But don’t worry—Starbucks isn’t the only one feeling the squeeze. McDonald’s also saw a decline in sales. And let’s not forget about China, where Starbucks experienced an 11% decline in same-store sales. It looks like even the Chinese are cutting back on their coffee fix—a clear sign that the global economy is struggling.
BREAKING: Starbucks stock, $SBUX, extends its decline to -16% today hitting its lowest level since June 2022.
The stock has now erased $35 BILLION in market cap since it hit its all time high in 2021.
Globally, Starbucks saw 6% decline in customer traffic in Q1 2024 ALONE.
The… pic.twitter.com/4LPXy5FNQW
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 1, 2024
And as if Starbucks didn’t have enough bad news to report, they also had to revise their outlook for 2024 for the third time this fiscal year. That’s right, not one, not two, but three times they have had to adjust their expectations. Looks like they were a little too optimistic about the future of their company. Good thing they have all those fancy, overpriced drinks to fall back on. Oh, wait…
So folks, forget the Big Mac Index, it’s all about the Starbucks Index now. And based on these results, it looks like the economy is in real trouble. People just aren’t willing to shell out their hard-earned cash for expensive coffee anymore. But hey, at least we can all save a few bucks and make our own coffee at home. Now, that’s a real economic indicator.
Starbucks having its worst percent drop since the start of the pandemic after reporting disappointing earnings.
The CEO joined CNBC this morning to make the bull case for the stock, but it didn’t make it much better: pic.twitter.com/KeAZdT7n8D
— CNBC’s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) May 1, 2024
