Republicans are showing unexpected strength in California’s early primary voting returns, sparking debate among political insiders over whether the shift signals growing GOP momentum or simply hesitation among Democratic voters in a crowded gubernatorial race.
According to data compiled by political research firm PDI, Republicans accounted for 34% of early mail ballot returns as of Friday, an 8-point increase compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterm cycle. Democrats, meanwhile, made up 41% of early returns, down 7 percentage points from the same point four years ago. Independent voter participation also ticked up slightly.
The numbers have drawn attention because California remains one of the nation’s most heavily Democratic states, where Republicans have struggled in statewide elections for years. Still, analysts caution that early voting data can be misleading and does not necessarily predict final election outcomes.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a Republican from San Diego, said the trend is encouraging for conservatives but warned against reading too much into the early figures.
“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” DeMaio told The Post.
He suggested some Democratic voters may still be undecided in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.
The Democratic field remains crowded and unsettled. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has emerged as an early frontrunner in recent polling, but former Rep. Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan are all competing for support.
On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have established a lead over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, helped in part by an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Under California’s “jungle” primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. The setup has raised concerns within both parties about splitting the vote and potentially being locked out of the November runoff entirely.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of political data at PDI, said the current voting patterns may reflect uncertainty among Democrats rather than a dramatic partisan shift.
“Some Democrats may be holding on to their ballots because they’re still unsure of this governor’s race,” Mitchell said. “There are a lot of voters who might be afraid of wasting a vote.”
Mitchell noted that Republicans may have an organizational advantage because GOP voters already have a clearer frontrunner in Hilton, while Democrats remain divided among several high-profile candidates.
The race was also reshaped by the departure of former Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell, who dropped out after facing multiple accusations of rape and sexual assault. Swalwell has denied wrongdoing, but his exit left many Democratic voters without a candidate they may have initially supported.
DeMaio acknowledged Republicans still face steep odds in a state where Democrats dominate voter registration and statewide offices. He also warned that Republicans could still be shut out of several major statewide races if Democratic voters consolidate late.
At the same time, he argued dissatisfaction within the Democratic base may be playing a role in the lower early turnout numbers.
“Democrats also have a pretty low opinion of Gavin Newsom,” DeMaio said, pointing to broader frustration with state government and economic conditions.
Mitchell added that Democrats may simply be taking more time before casting their ballots.
“They’re still a fractured Democratic field,” he said. “The fear for Democrats should be that voters have the ballot right in front of them, but they say they’re not going to vote right now, and then other stuff gets them distracted.”
