According to the most recent New York Times/Siena survey released on Sunday, any “bounce” Vice President Kamala Harris may have received from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) last month seems to have faded. Josh Kraushaar provided a breakdown of the survey, taken between September 3 and 6, showing former President Donald Trump leading Harris 48% to 47%.
Kraushaar noted, “The Harris bounce, blown,” citing that the results remained “largely unchanged from a Times/Siena survey taken in late July just after President Biden announced he would not run for reelection.”
The Harris bounce, blown:
NEW NYT/Siena poll:
Trump 48
Harris 47The results are “largely unchanged from a Times/Siena poll taken in late July just after President Biden dropped his re-election bid.”https://t.co/GU2iUWDVsB
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
Several key questions from the survey highlight where the DNC’s strategy—focused on attacking Trump while promoting Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz—may not have landed as hoped. Many respondents mentioned they were open to Harris but needed more information, particularly regarding her policy positions, before they would commit to voting for her.
The survey found that 28% of likely voters felt they needed to know more about Harris, while only 9% felt the same about Trump. This group, combined with the 5% of undecided voters, indicates a potentially more fluid electorate than the numbers might suggest.
Missed opportunity of the convention — more policy substance — and reassure voters she doesn’t hold the progressive positions of recent vintage:
“28% of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Harris, while only 9% said they needed to know more about…
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
Harris’ challenge is further highlighted by her struggle to position herself as a “change” candidate. While over 60% of likely voters agreed the next president should represent a major shift from President Biden, only 25% saw Harris as representing that change, compared to 53% for Trump. This poses a significant hurdle for the vice president, especially as the country remains largely dissatisfied with its current direction—less than one-third of those surveyed believe America is moving in the right direction.
This was the goal at the convention– to make Harris the candidate of change:
“If November is about change, Ms. Harris will need to make the case that she can deliver it. More than 60 percent of likely voters said the next president should represent a major change from Mr.…
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
Harris’ attempts to cast Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, as “extreme” haven’t been entirely effective either. The survey found that 32% see Trump as “too conservative,” while 47% view Harris as “too liberal,” adding another layer of difficulty to her campaign narrative.
Abortion remains Harris’ strongest issue, according to the survey, but even there, the ground seems shaky. Despite her claims, 16% of Democrats—and nearly half of independents—don’t believe Trump would actually push for a federal law restricting abortion, challenging one of her key talking points.
